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You must try to
choose the good positions and avoid the bad ones. Poor trade selection takes a
heavy toll as it bleeds your confidence and wallet. You face
many crossroads during each market day. Without a system of
discipline for your decision-making, impulse and emotion will
undermine skills as you chase the wrong stocks at the worst
times. Many short-term players view trading as a form of
gambling. Without planning or discipline, they throw money at
the market.
The occasional big
score reinforces this easy money attitude but sets them up for
ultimate failure. Without defensive rules, insiders easily feed
off these losers and send them off to other hobbies. Technical
Analysis teaches traders to execute positions based on numbers,
time and volume.
This discipline
forces traders to distance themselves from reckless gambling
behavior. Through detached execution and solid risk management,
short-term trading finally "works". Markets echo similar
patterns over and over again. The science of trend allows you to
build systematic rules to play these repeating formations and
avoid the chase:
• Forget the news,
remember the chart. You're not smart enough to know how news
will affect price. The chart already knows the news is coming.
• Buy the first
pullback from a new high. Sell the first pullback from a new
low. There's always a crowd that missed the first boat.
• Buy at support,
sell at resistance. Everyone sees the same thing and they're all
just waiting to jump in the pool.
• Short rallies not
sell offs. When markets drop, shorts finally turn a profit and
get ready to cover.
• Don't buy up into a
major moving average or sell down into one. See #3.
• Don't chase
momentum if you can't find the exit. Assume the market will
reverse the minute you get in. If it's a long way to the door,
you're in big trouble.
• Exhaustion gaps get
filled. Breakaway and continuation gaps don't. The old traders'
wisdom is a lie. Trade in the direction of gap support whenever
you can.
• Trends test the
point of last support/resistance. Enter here even if it hurts.
• Trade with the TICK
not against it. Don't be a hero. Go with the money flow.
• If you have to
look, it isn't there. Forget your college degree and trust your
instincts.
• Sell the second
high, buy the second low. After sharp pullbacks, the first test
of any high or low always runs into resistance. Look for the
break on the third or fourth try.
• The trend is your
friend in the last hour. As volume cranks up at 3:00pm don't
expect anyone to change the channel.
• Avoid the open.
They see YOU coming sucker
• 1-2-3-Drop-Up. Look
for downtrends to reverse after a top, two lower highs and a
double bottom.
• Bulls live above
the 200 day, bears live below. Sellers eat up rallies below this
key moving average line and buyers to come to the rescue above
it.
• Price has memory.
What did price do the last time it hit a certain level? Chances
are it will do it again.
• Big volume kills
moves. Climax blow-offs take both buyers and sellers out of the
market and lead to sideways action.
• Trends never turn
on a dime. Reversals build slowly. The first sharp dip always
finds buyers and the first sharp rise always finds sellers.
• Bottoms take longer
to form than tops. Greed acts more quickly than fear and causes
stocks to drop from their own weight.
• Beat the crowd in
and out the door. You have to take their money before they take
yours, period.
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