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When asked, a group
of more than 500 experienced futures brokers said that most
futures traders lose money for a variety of reasons; their
reasons are outlined below. Perhaps you may recognize some of
your strengths and weaknesses. Yet many of the reasons given are
very similar from broker to broker. The repetitions stand to
demonstrate that, unfortunately, many futures traders lose money
for same reasons. Perhaps the observations of experienced
brokers can make a contribution to you, and make this sometimes
fickle, often intricate, always interesting market place of
futures trading possible for you.
Here is what they
said:
1. Many futures
traders trade without a plan. They do not define specific risk
and profit objectives before placing trades. Even if they
establish a plan, they often 'second guess' it and don't stick
to their plan, particularly if the trade starts to lose.
Consequently, they overtrade and use their equity to the limit.
They are therefore under-capitalised, which puts them in a
squeeze and forces them to liquidate positions due to lack of
funding rather than for good reasons. Usually, they liquidate
the good trades and keep the bad ones.
2. Many traders do not realize the news they hear has already
been discounted by the markets and the current price already
reflects knowledge of this information.
3. After several profitable trades, many speculators become wild
and un-conservative. They base their trades on hunches and long
shots, rather than sound fundamental and technical reasoning, or
they put their money into one deal that 'can't fail.' - it can,
and usually does.
4. Traders often try to carry too large a position with too
little capital, and trade too frequently for the size of their
account.
5. Some traders try to 'beat the market' by day trading, nervous
scalping, and getting greedy.
6. They fail to pre-define risk, add to a losing position, and
fail to use stops.
7 They frequently have a directional bias; for example, always
wanting to be long.
8. Lack of experience in the market causes many traders to
become emotionally and/or financially committed to one trade,
and unwilling or unable to take a loss. They may be unable to
admit they have made a mistake, or they look at the market on
too short a time frame.
9. They overtrade.
10. Many traders can't (or don't) take the small losses. They
often stick with a loser until it really hurts, then take the
larger loss. This is an undisciplined approach. A trader needs
to develop and stick to a system.
11. Many traders get a fundamental case and hang onto it, even
after the market technically turns. Only believe fundamentals as
long as the technical signals follow. Both must agree.
12. Many traders break a cardinal rule: 'Cut losses short. Let
profits run.'
13. Many people trade with their hearts instead of their heads.
For some traders, adversity (or success) distorts judgment. That
is why they should have a plan first, and stick to it.
14. Often traders have bad timing, and not enough capital to
survive the shake out.
15. Too many traders perceive futures markets as an intuitive
arena. The inability to distinguish between price fluctuations,
which reflect a fundamental change, and those which represent a
short-term correction, can often causes losses.
16. Not following a disciplined trading program leads to
accepting large losses and small profits. Many traders do not
define offensive and defensive plans when an initial position is
taken.
17. Emotion makes many traders hold a loser too long. Many
traders don't discipline themselves to take small losses and big
gains.
18. Too many traders are under financed, and get washed out at
the extremes.
19. Greed causes some traders to allow profits to dwindle into
losses while hoping for larger profits. This is really due to a
lack of discipline. Also, having too many trades on at one time
and overtrading for the amount of capital involved can stem from
greed.
20. Trying to trade inactive markets is dangerous.
21. Taking too big a risk with too little profit potential is a
sure road to losses.
22. Many traders lose by not taking losses in proportion to the
size of their accounts.
23. Often, traders do not recognize the difference between
trading markets and trending markets. Lack of discipline is a
major shortcoming.
24. Lack of discipline includes several lesser items.' i.e.,
impatience, need for action, etc. Also, many traders are unable
to take a loss and to take that loss quickly.
25. Trading against the trend, especially without reasonable
stops, and insufficient capital to trade with and/or improper
money management are major causes of large tosses in the futures
markets; however, a large capital base alone does not guarantee
success.
26. Overtrading is dangerous, and often stems from lack of
planning.
27. Trading very speculative commodities is a frequent mistake.
28. There is a striking inability to stay with winners. Most
traders are too willing to take small profits and, therefore,
miss out on big profits. Another problem is under
capitalization; small accounts can't diversify, and often can't
use valid stops.
29. Some traders are on an ego trip and won't take advice from
another person; all trades must be their own ideas.
30. Many traders have the habit of not cutting losses fast, and
getting out of winners too soon. It sounds simple, but it takes
discipline to trade correctly. This is hard whether you're
losing or winning. Many traders overtrade their accounts.
31. Many futures traders tend to have no discipline, no plan,
and no patience. They overtrade and can't wait for the right
opportunity. Instead, they seem compelled to trade every rumour.
32. Staying with a losing position because a trader's
information (or worse yet, intuition) indicates the
deteriorating market is only a temporary situation can lead to
large losses.
33. Lack of risk capital in the market means inadequate capital
for diversification and staying power in that market.
34. Some speculators don't have the temperament to accept small
losses in a trade, or the patience to let winners ride.
35. Greed, as evidenced by trying to pick tops or bottoms, is a
frequent error.
36. Not having a trading plan results in a lack of money
management. Then, when too much ego gets involved, the result is
emotional trading.
37. Frequently, traders judge markets on the local situation
only, rather than taking the worldwide situation into account.
38. Speculators allow emotions to overcome intelligence when
markets are going for them or against them. They do not have a
plan and do not therefore follow it. A good plan must include
adequate defence points (stops).
39. Some traders are not willing to believe price action, and
thus trade contrary to the trend.
40. Many speculators trade only one commodity.
41. Getting out of a rallying commodity too quickly, or holding
losers too long results in losses.
42. Trading against the trend is a common mistake. This may
result from overtrading, too many day-trades, and under
capitalization, accentuated by failure to use a money management
approach to trading futures.
43. Often, traders jump into a market based on a story in the
morning paper.' the market many times has already discounted the
information.
44. Lack of self-discipline on the part of the trader and/ or
broker creates losses. Futures traders tend to do inadequate
research.
45. Traders don't clearly identify and then adhere to risk
parameters; i.e., stops.
46. Most traders overtrade without doing enough research. They
take too many positions with too little information. They do a
lot of day trading for which they are under margined; thus, they
are unable to accept small losses,
47. Many speculators use 'conventional wisdom 'which is either
local, or 'old news' to the market. They take small profits, not
riding gains as they should, and tend to stay with losing
positions. Most traders do not spend enough time and effort
analysing the market, and/or analysing their own emotional
make-ups.
48. Too many traders do not apply money management techniques.
They have no discipline, no plan. Many also overstay when the
market goes against them, and won't limit their losses
49. Many traders are under capitalized. They trade positions too
large, relative to their available capital. They are not
flexible enough to change their minds or opinions when the trend
is clearly against their positions. They don't have a good
battle plan and the courage to stick to it.
50. Don't make trading decisions based on inside information.
It's illegal, and besides, it's usually wrong. unless of course
your the CEO
In closing...
There are many traders who are extremely successful and make a
regular profit from the futures and options markets. While about
90% of traders who enter the futures markets will lose their
risk capital and stop trading, the remaining 10% are left to
make a large and regular profit.
How do you become one of the elite 10% who win?
In order to learn how to be a winning trading, you need to look
at what successful and winning traders do.
They all
trade with a plan.
They accept
that not all trades will be winners.
They analyze
every trade and keep accurate records.
They know how
much to risk on every trade.
They never
make the same mistake twice.
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